Incoming sunspot 2684 showing increasing M-Class Activity, with potential for X Class Solar flares this week!
52 2017-10-17 by ParsingSol
Estimated M-5 Flare Today With potential for a 'non-earth directed' CME.
This event today will likely not produce any harrowing / seismic events...
However:
The incoming sunspot 2684 should be closely monitored this week for any additional flares, or cme's; (As it makes its way across the solar lens)
Its also following a significant coronal hole stream. CH36 As seen on AIA211B.
The additional solar intensity coming from this coronal holes stream, places earth in a more sensitive position. (in terms of future incoming cme's from 2684), So any events given M-class 5, or above range, should be given a slight multiplier of reaction in our coming weeks forecast.
more so a heads up to those curious. Hoping to see some events which indicate higher than mag 7.0 Seismic range.
(Time will tell!)
UPDATE CME WAS MASSIVE
:)
19 comments
1 Squirrelboy85 2017-10-17
Thanks man for the heads up. As time goes on to a specific date and place pls let us know.
1 ParsingSol 2017-10-17
It's hard to say at this time if the region will remain active as it passes. (If so, then I will certainly be posting on it)
The best I can really do today, is to give a diagnostic based on my personal assumptions of the suns farside data, as well as the activity taking place within the Lasco imaging
Looks like a busier then normal week however. So Expect to see more from me as the time passes by!
:)
1 Squirrelboy85 2017-10-17
Thanks man
1 MasterLocksBagel 2017-10-17
It'll be the one near the scheduled massive wastewater injection site, he can't tell you ahead of time and spoil the fun.
1 Squirrelboy85 2017-10-17
Ya ya I know wish he was able to
1 hoeskioeh 2017-10-17
Too bad we are in the downswing of the sunspot cycles... I bet you get better data in 7-8 years...
1 ParsingSol 2017-10-17
I agree.
Its also good though, because minima and maxima are two separate models. (slow winds vs fast winds)...
If my projects ever going to be beneficial as a seismic prediction tool. Then, I will have to account for both weather patterns.
You are absolutely correct though... It drives me into a limited position in terms of progress. As when these event cycles do not produce significant episodes. I myself am unable to forecast significant correlations.
Yet, It does give me some time off, to approach the project and data, though. So I suppose its beneficial. (in some extent).
1 ConspiracyAccount 2017-10-17
Do you use Matlab?
1 ParsingSol 2017-10-17
I am unfamiliar with it? :/
1 ConspiracyAccount 2017-10-17
It's the mathematics/statistics tool. You won't get very far without it.
1 ParsingSol 2017-10-17
Thanks /u/ConspiracyAccount
I will look into it.
If you have any other tools for / by suggestion; Please Pm Me :)
1 hoeskioeh 2017-10-17
Wolfram Alpha ;-)
It's to MatLab like a bicycle to a SpaceShuttle... Both in complexity and power, as well as in price tag and learning curve.
MatLab is not a tool you can just "look into"... There are college courses dedicated to learn how to use its basics. I took one (looong ago), I am not convinced I could do a HelloWorld without referencing the manuals for an hour...
1 Scroon 2017-10-17
Thanks PSol. Appreciate the work.
1 EZ4u2ask 2017-10-17
2-3 days after the flare come the solar storms. You can monitor in real time here.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
1 ParsingSol 2017-10-17
full event animation
1 XavierSimmons 2017-10-17
/u/ParsingSol, for earthquakes that have occurred within your predicted range, have you done any analysis on the metadata? For example, do you think solar activity is more likely to cause deep earthquakes, or shallow earthquakes? Do the quakes fall within normal fault ranges, or do they occur outside of fault ranges? Is there any association with volcanic activity?
Just wondering. Keep analyzing.
1 PoppaSynth 2017-10-17
Fuck I better go buy all the bread and milk the store has
1 33timeemit33 2017-10-17
Whats your concern level for yellow stone going off?
1 Satou4 2017-10-17
It must be Hillary leaving through the Stargate.
1 ParsingSol 2017-10-17
It's hard to say at this time if the region will remain active as it passes. (If so, then I will certainly be posting on it)
The best I can really do today, is to give a diagnostic based on my personal assumptions of the suns farside data, as well as the activity taking place within the Lasco imaging
Looks like a busier then normal week however. So Expect to see more from me as the time passes by!
:)
1 MasterLocksBagel 2017-10-17
It'll be the one near the scheduled massive wastewater injection site, he can't tell you ahead of time and spoil the fun.