/r/conspiracy, what is your personal method of deciding truth/proof/validity?

8  2011-06-26 by blockhead123

I've never asked this before; I am interested in the method various groups of individuals make decisions; deciding what is valid, what can be seen as reliable evidence, what should be taken as truth.

What is your system?

50 comments

I'll start with mine:

I am skeptical to a fault sometimes. I hold the scientific method in high regard, and am even involved in research at a state university (Psychology).

While I do hold scientists in high regard, I usually read the methods section of research papers to get a good idea of how something was researched. That is how I decide how valid a particular piece is.

Because of this, I tend to remain skeptical of many mainstream opinions, as well as many conspiracy/supernatural opinions. I don't disbelieve them, but I don't hold them as truth unless I've done my own research.

This has pretty much led me to become atheist.

What is a mainstream opinion you are skeptical of?

That god exists. Because of that I am dismissed as a nutcase and a heathen.

Do you believe any conspiracy theories? If so, what are they?

Right now I am open to the possibility of conspiracies.

When it comes to 9/11 I think it's possible that the gov't let it happen on purpose. I believe aliens probably exist, but I don't know whether or not they have visited us. I don't believe in paranormal or supernatural occurrences.

So I'm pretty much skeptical but not completely closed to those ideas.

So what is your system for deciding that aliens probably do exist but ghosts (for example) don't?

Based on probability, there is a high chance that life has evolved somewhere else in the universe. Maybe not advanced, but still highly probable. As for a supernatural being such as ghosts; there is no reason to believe in something such as that unless evidence presents itself.

A lot of people have reported seeing ghosts.

Why do you dismiss their evidence?

The same reason I dismiss people claiming to talk to god. Anecdotes and second hand stories can't be confirmed, and therefore aren't good enough for me to base my personal beliefs on.

If someone told me they saw a dragon, and gave me a blurry picture that could be a lot of different things, I wouldn't automatically start believing in dragons.

Why do you hold scientists in high regard?

Because the scientific method is a very good system of testing reality. And at the level of education I'm at, I can at the very least read research papers and understand if they used a valid method when they were conducting an experiment.

When scientists use poor scientific techniques, it's pretty easy for me to spot, and their "findings" are typically refuted by other scientists.

Can I be sceptical here? :)

I think it's unlikely that you can read a paper outside your field and judge if the method is sound or not.

What do you think?

When I took my research methods class, we went over all the forms of scientific inquiry. When it comes to methods, it is pretty easy to spot a poorly designed experiment. The cases where comprehension would become an issue is if you were getting into mathematical proofs and physics. I will give you that. When you get into fields like that though, peer review is most important, and these people are working with things that likely can't be experimented on in the first place (Like string theory).

But when you get into independent variables, dependent variables, sample size, repeatability, and strength of a correlation, and other things like that, you don't need to be an expert in a specific field to understand if it set up correctly or not.

So if we chose a random experimental scientific paper, from some experimental biology journal, say, you would feel qualified to judge the strengths and weaknesses of the method?

ETA:

You comments are welcome on this paper

I would hope so ;) I took research methods a year ago, and next semester I'm taking a graduate level research methods class (Advanced research methods). One issue I see with mainstream media is this: A headline will read, "New study links XXXX to XXXX." if you dig a little bit, you will find out that either the sample size is really small, or the correlational coefficient is only something like .0125, which is really weak. The news will leave that out, of course, and lead you to believe something that may or may not be valid.

Part of writing a research paper is the discussion in which you are required to discuss the limitations of your study, in the interests of academic honesty. So they are training us to be very critical of our own work.

See my ETA of my previous reply, for link to a paper

I chose that at random, first paper found in first online experimental biology journal

Good luck :)

Thanks.

This should be an interesting exercise for me. Hopefully my education can be applied to other fields as well. :D

I guess what you will find is that you are lost by the end of the first sentence. Science at that sort of level is pretty much incomprehensible to other disciplines, and I strongly doubt whether you can make any sort of attempt to judge its strengths and weaknesses :)

I agree the scientific method is a thing of wonder.

But there's a certain amount of faith involved -- faith that the peers who reviewed the paper made a good judgement in accepting it.

You are correct. I can understand the statistics involved, but it is pretty much useless without understanding the context of it all. I have only taken a few biology classes so my understanding of this paper is minimal.

Which is why science has, I think, a faith-based component :)

You said:

When scientists use poor scientific techniques, it's pretty easy for me to spot, and their "findings" are typically refuted by other scientists.

Outside your field you probably can't judge poor scientific technique, so you have to make your judgement in terms of what "other scientists" say.

But then if Scientist A writes a paper, which scientists B and C say is poor, but scientist D says is okay, who do you believe?

Why is that different from person A seeing a ghost, which person B and C say they don't believe, but person D sees the same ghost as person A?

If I claimed to see a ghost, the burden of proof is on me to back up my claim. If the only "proof" to go off of is the testimony of person D, this isn't a strong argument. People can lie, manipulate, hallucinate, etc. Shared hallucinations is also something that has been observed.

In science, experiments must produce the same results, otherwise they aren't considered valid. if B and C dispute a scientific paper, but run the experiment and get the same results and A, they have no basis for their argument.

re: ghosts, and the burden of proof.

There are, I think, a wide range of human experiences for which there is little proof.

For example, as a thought experiment imagine I had no sense of humour. You watched a comedy and laughed, and claimed it was funny. I could say the burden of proof was on you to prove it was funny. How would you do it?

re: science. In the real world, science isn't as neat and clean as you hope. For example (and Feynman is very good on this), if Famous Theory predicts you should get a value of N for something, but you run the experiment and get N-10, do you publish that result? No, you look for errors in the experiment. Change a few things. Get N-7. Aha! Getting closer. One more run of debugging the procedure: N-4! woo! Then the next person gets N-1! (The twist in the tale is that theory was wrong, the true value SHOULD be N-10, but you didn't have the trust in your data).

That's a human failing, to get the results one expects. As a psychologist you should be very well versed in the terrible tricks our minds play on us :)

The problem is you are comparing some thing subjective (humor) and objective (The existence of ghosts).

If I claimed to be in possession of the holy grail, I would have to be the person to prove that I indeed have it. Saying, "Prove I don't have it!" is faulty reasoning.

The problem is you are comparing some thing subjective (humor) and objective (The existence of ghosts).

No, I'm saying what if some people can sense ghosts, and others just can't?

If you can't, then how can I prove to you that someone else can?

[After all, we all differ on all sorts of sensitivities in other parts of life.]

That would lead me to believe that they are possibly schizophrenic.

What, everyone who has ever had a ghostly experience?

[I don't know what the stats are, but it's a great deal higher than the 1 percent population incidence of schizophrenia]

Well it's definitely an example. If I'm standing in a room with someone, and they point at something that isn't there and start freaking out, chances are they are hallucinating.

But there are an array of explanations that exist:

1.) A hoax

2.) Someone misinterpreting what they sense

3.) Suggestibility (Like people who claim to have religious experiences)

4.) A dream

5.) And of course, it could be something paranormal

Now, strange shit has happened to me before. The thing is, based on what happened, I am not going to jump to a conclusion, because I can't based on what occurred. It isn't logical to claim number 5 happened when it is no more likely than any of the other events, and there is no evidence to back up that hypothesis.

Taking your post at face value, are you saying p=.2 for all of those 5 explanations?

Eg is it really equally likely that it was a dream, a hoax, a misinterpretation, etc ...

I would say hoax and trick of the mind are up there for most likely. Dreams are very likely as well. Maybe paranormal stories happen in a person's own home when you could be dreaming or having a waking dream. A fair amount of people can suffer from hallucinations, but I don't think that possibility is the highest. And highly suggestible people can be made to believe things quite often; just look at religion and hypnotism. Obviously it's a possibility that if could be paranormal, but I don't think it is very likely.

Sorry, I worded that badly.

In the case of your strange experience, what p values would you apply to the 5 possibilities?

Which is why science has, I think, a faith-based component :)

How about ''trust in the integrity of people experts in their fields'' instead of ''faith-based'' ?

I'd argue that if you can prove your point, it's not faith-based. Of course, one human can't be proven every scientific concept but still.

How about ''trust in the integrity of people experts in their fields'' instead of ''faith-based'' ?

Absolutely not! Scientists are human beings, they are not some superior race of super-rational super-moral beings, immune to error or the lures of status etc :)

Are you really asking me to trust in the integrity of scientists whose work is funded by oil corporations -- papers which oddly come down on the anti-global-warming side?

ETA: go and read this, superb bit of Feynman, on missing scientific integrity:

cargo cult science

Are you really asking me to trust in the integrity of scientists whose work is funded by oil corporations -- papers which oddly come down on the anti-global-warming side?

Still, I'd rather we call it "trust" instead of faith. I take faith to mean "Complete trust or confidence in someone or something."

Allowing for papers and scientist's work to be disproved and minds to be changed isn't really complete trust. It's more like trust that experts in the field will want the truthest possible facts to be viewed as true by the public.

ETA: go and read this, superb bit of Feynman, on missing scientific integrity:

Really nice read: scientific integrity for the win.

Glad you liked the Feynman.

It's more like trust that experts in the field will want the truthest possible facts to be viewed as true by the public.

Why do you trust experts to want that?

Is it only scientific experts you trust, or experts in non-science fields (say, the Humanities) as well?

Why do you trust experts to want that?

Besides personal reasons, they can be called out if they start spreading falseness by peers in their field. Of course, if everyone in the field agrees like a hive-mind to a conspiracy, it's harder for this mechanism to work. Nevertheless, tangential lines of evidence would probably awake some questions. So biggest mechanism would be peer-review of events and proclamations.

Is it only scientific experts you trust, or experts in non-science fields (say, the Humanities) as well?

Especially after reading Feynman's monologue, I'd say all that follow the scientific method with integrity are scientists as well.

You're probably right, they've probably never visited us, NOT!

What the hell is that website?

James Gilliland, he owns a ranch where Ufos buzz overhead nightly:)

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Exactly. Rigorously peer reviewed studies agree with my common sense.

However even then, I admit I am skeptical of a lot of the cutting edge science I hear. A lot of it is theoretical, so I view most of it as possible, not fact.

Ya know, the "gold standard" peer reviewed double blind studies aren't as reliable as most people think. Much of shat goes on in modern medicine is just as unscientific as alternative medicine, or more so. Give me a study that says one thing and I'll show you a study that directly contradicts it.

That's kinda how science works bro. Scientists will prove and disprove each other over time, new things are learned, and what we know slowly gets more accurate.

When a study finds something, the writer doesn't yell PROOF! Typically they'll recommend further research to better understand what happened.

It's a mess but it works great.

But it doesn't work great, bro. According to their own numbers, our medical system kills 100,000 people every year that otherwise would have lived. These numbers are for people who received the correct treatment with no error, and does not account for doctor error, hospital error, or opportunity cost for alternative treatments. All told, modern medicine easily surpasses heart disease as the greatest single killer of Americans.

I get that you are a supporter of science. I am as well in it's purest most unadulterated form, but what we call 'science' today is often official myths put forth by those who stand to gain from it, supported by junk science that was bought and paid for before it ever occurred.

In which way does modern medicine kill? Because even people receiving treatment are made aware of the chance they will die. The side effects and risk involved in any sort of treatment are known and disclosed to patients. Buy fuck, let's just get rid of it. It's not like medicine has helped save millions of lives or anything.

But you must be really removed from modern science if you think scientists today are in it for the money. Given the amount of money professors at universities make, they are giving up much better paying alternatives to do what they are passionate about.

Obviously there will be corruption, as there is in every aspect of life. But one thing I find awesome is that corruption is easily weeded out of science. One recent example is the whole autism/vaccine link (Or the lack thereof). It turns out that the scientist who wrote the study who found the link between autism and vaccines fabricated data.

This shit gets caught by scientists. It's the idiots in the media that don't correct themselves.

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Why are you blaming the scientists?

If you want to blame someone, blame the executives and politicians that stand to make money by promoting a dangerous product. Scientists do research, but if you haven't noticed, these people don't profit from it. They get paid the same modest wage. The executives are the ones who stand to make millions off of that shit. Our country is getting fucked up the ass by the rich. There is a lot of talent in the US, but most of us are at the mercy of corporate interests. The research happens, people know what's up, and their shit is taken and given out by someone who wants money.

But that's the medical industry and you seem to be ignoring the broader range of science.

[deleted]

The entire existence of science has been challenging the status quo. Every groundbreaking discovery in history has been met with skepticism. Nothing is wrong with this, as every one of these discoveries has proven their worth with time. The key difference is that these discoveries have been well backed up, and repeatedly confirmed over the course of time. They are testable, and when they aren't they stay as a hypothesis, not a theory.

I do have a few things to point out, that seem to get forgotten. Suppression of energy research? Look up what is going on with nuclear fusion. Half of the money spent of energy research is spent on nuclear fusion, which would totally fuck over the oil industry. Explaining the paranormal? Try showing me something that actually proves it beyond pure speculation.

At a university in my state, there is a professor that is fiercely trying to find bigfoot. You might call it suppression that nobody is taking him seriously, but you would be wrong. Nobody is telling him to be quiet. People don't take him serious because big foot is a legend; and in the decades that he's been hunting for big foot, he has produced Absolutely NOTHING that would point to his existence.

The problem is, if you try to shake the system, you better have a good argument. If you present them what these so called paranormal experts present them with, you won't be blowing anyone's mind.

[deleted]

What's the point of studying something if it can't be falsified? If I said that there was a god, but there was no way of observing or perceiving him, does it even matter?

[deleted]

God or gods are an example of something that can't be falsified.

[deleted]

It could be falsified if we gained knowledge of everything in existence.

i avoid mainstrem media and agendas set by it altogether (reuters, economist, nyt, wapo, bbc, cnn, spiegel, all tv news, hollywood, politicians and so on). after that i focus on things i am interested in and i think affect me directly and research all the cons and pros from as many independent sources as possible, looking into their sources, funding, owners, credibility, affiliations, past publications, history and methods. once i find a fundamental flaw in a source it's discredited for me and am not going back to it again. only after this i approach the story itself and try to see it as a causality in a wider context to see how it fits in the bigger picture. whenever i succumb to hype i regret it sooner or later.

I tend to just assume that I am not being told the whole truth about anything I read in the paper or hear on the news.

That doesn't essentially mean that I assume I am being lied to, though that could be the case. But I almost always assume that facts are being omitted purposefully by someone.

Well it's definitely an example. If I'm standing in a room with someone, and they point at something that isn't there and start freaking out, chances are they are hallucinating.

But there are an array of explanations that exist:

1.) A hoax

2.) Someone misinterpreting what they sense

3.) Suggestibility (Like people who claim to have religious experiences)

4.) A dream

5.) And of course, it could be something paranormal

Now, strange shit has happened to me before. The thing is, based on what happened, I am not going to jump to a conclusion, because I can't based on what occurred. It isn't logical to claim number 5 happened when it is no more likely than any of the other events, and there is no evidence to back up that hypothesis.